Ms Cortez Masto was elected in 2016 as the hand-picked successor of Harry Reid, a former Senate majority leader and the most powerful politician in Nevada’s history. “Any poll that you see that doesn’t have Spanish interviews in it is not a real poll of Hispanics,” says Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic strategist. Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll, as many voters who work in Nevada’s large tourism industry are transient, work odd hours and speak only Spanish. Yet election night may deliver the winner wider margins than polls suggest. The Economist’s midterms forecasting model suggests that Ms Cortez Masto, the Senate’s first (and so far only) Latina member, is neck-and-neck with Adam Laxalt, the state’s former attorney-general. The Senate and gubernatorial races in Nevada are tight. A recent survey of Latino voters from Pew Research Centre found that Mexican-Americans were twice as likely to say they would vote for the Democrat as for the Republican in their local congressional district. Voters of Mexican descent, however, abandoned Democrats less often than other Hispanic groups did in 2020.
But John Tuman, a political scientist at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, argues that such worries don’t resonate as much in Nevada, where most Latino voters are of Mexican descent.Īn analysis from Catalist, a liberal political-data firm, suggests that in 2020 Donald Trump improved on his 2016 performance among Hispanics in Nevada by eight points, as he did nationally. Concerns over creeping socialism may help push Latino voters into the arms of Republicans in Florida, which is home to vibrant Cuban and Venezuelan communities. “Latinos in Nevada are not the same thing as Latinos in Florida,” says one long-time Democratic operative. But analysis of YouGov data by The Economist suggests that the average swing voter this year is a young Hispanic man without a college degree who lives in a city.ĭemocrats in Nevada are quick to distance the Silver State from the shift to the right perceived elsewhere. A majority of Latino voters still consistently support Democrats. A new report from the Latino Donor Collaborative, a research group, suggests that the number of Latinos born in America grew by 31% between 20, compared with 2.8% for non-Latinos. Nearly 18% of registered voters in Nevada and 19% in Arizona are Latino, compared to 10% nationally. The erosion of Democratic support among Hispanics in Florida and southern Texas between 20 has heaped attention upon Latino voters, especially in swing states with large Hispanic populations.
0 kommentar(er)
